Mathematical Model Examples

Unit 4: “What If …?”

The ultimate goal of any model is to provide possible answers to “What if …?” questions. A working model is now in place. What if the population factors and foundation factors noted in the set-up of the recursive model continue? What if they change? What if fewer counts of people move into a country? What if economic conditions require more workers? What if a downturn in the economy results in people having fewer children? These and several similar questions are explored in this unit. Students are expected to apply the tools they learned to rebuild the recursive model and answer these types of questions. Students are also expected to be able to articulate what changes they propose to the original model and why they propose those changes. The two lessons designed in this unit, and the concluding wrap-up section, are putting students in control of the model.

Counting people may initially strike students as both simple and relatively “easy.” People Count! connects real people to this process and develops with students’ reasons why this process is important and a major challenge. Some people have actually stated that the survival of the United States is dependent on making sure counting people is done correctly.

A Line Graph Showing the Projected Population of the United States From 2000 to 2060 3

What if the rate of immigration, death rates, and birth rates derived in 2015 did not change?

A Line Graph Showing the Projected Population of the United States From 2000 to 2060 2

What if immigration was restricted?

A Line Graph Showing the Projected Population of the United States From 2000 to 2060 1

What changes would you make to the United States recursive model that would result in a graph similar to the one presented in this graph?

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